The 'Budget Pause' and the 2026 Spring Surge
In the final quarter of 2025, we saw a sharper-than-usual slowdown in "sales agreed" due to speculation surrounding the Autumn Budget. Demand was down 12% in the last month as buyers waited for the dust to settle.
Key Takeaways
| Indicator | Status in 2025 | Outlook for 2026 |
|---|---|---|
| Total Home Sales | 1.2 million (3-year high) | ~1.18 million |
| Average House Price | £270,300 | Predicted 1.5% rise |
| Price Growth | 1.1% (Slowing) | Stable growth expected |
| Market Driver | First-Time Buyers (39%) | First-Time Buyers |
What does this mean for you?
Because it takes an average of five months for a sale to complete, this late-2025 dip will likely show up in transaction figures early next year. However, we expect a stronger-than-usual start to 2026. Withbudget uncertainty now lifted, pent-up demand is likely to release, making the early months of the new year an ideal time to get your property surveyed and ready for market.
Average UK house prices: last 3 months
The average house price in the UK is £270,300 as of November 2025 (published December 2025). This is a rise of £3,050 (1.1%) over the past year.
| Property Type | Sept 2025 | Oct 2025 | Nov 2025 | Annual Change (£) | Annual Change (%) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| All UK property | £270,000 | £270,300 | £270,300 | +£3,050 | 1.1% |
| Flats/maisonettes | £191,400 | £191,000 | £190,900 | -£1,850 | -1.0% |
| Terraced houses | £240,100 | £239,900 | £240,300 | +£3,980 | 1.7% |
| Semi-detached houses | £277,600 | £277,300 | £277,700 | +£5,400 | 2.0% |
| Detached houses | £452,000 | £452,300 | £452,800 | +£5,540 | 1.2% |
The North-South Divide Widens
Geography continues to play a massive role in property value. We are seeing a distinct split:
The North & Scotland: Lower prices are boosting affordability, leading to growth as high as 2.9% in the North West and 4.7% in the Scottish Borders.
The South & London: High entry costs and the end of stamp duty reliefs have seen prices cooling. Areas like Truro (-2.4%) and parts of Inner London (-2.0%) have seen modest falls.
For buyers in the South, this "buyer’s market" offers room for negotiation, whereas sellers in the North may find themselves in a more competitive environment.
First-Time Buyers: The Market Powerhouse
Perhaps the most encouraging news is the return of the first-time buyer. Accounting for 39% of all sales, this group has been the engine of the 2025 market. Improved mortgage availability has helped, though many are now targeting slightly cheaper homes to offset higher buying costs.
Looking Ahead to 2026
| Property Type | Sept 2025 | Oct 2025 | Nov 2025 | Annual Change (£) | Annual Change (%) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| All UK property | £270,000 | £270,300 | £270,300 | +£3,050 | 1.1% |
| Flats/maisonettes | £191,400 | £191,000 | £190,900 | -£1,850 | -1.0% |
| Terraced houses | £240,100 | £239,900 | £240,300 | +£3,980 | 1.7% |
| Semi-detached houses | £277,600 | £277,300 | £277,700 | +£5,400 | 2.0% |
| Detached houses | £452,000 | £452,300 | £452,800 | +£5,540 | 1.2% |
We anticipate a stable year for 2026. Prices are predicted to rise by 1.5%, supported by a healthy stock of homes for sale. For homeowners and buyers alike, the message is clear: affordability is the key. Sellers who remain realistic on pricing will find plenty of active buyers ready to make their move.
Thinking of moving in the New Year?
As Chartered Surveyors, we provide the detailed insights you need to navigate these market shifts with confidence. Whether you need a Level 2 HomeBuyer Report or a comprehensive Level 3 Building Survey, understanding the true condition and value of your home is the first step to a successful move.
Would you like a tailored quote for a survey on your next property to ensure you're paying a fair price in today's market?